Publikationen
Accepted, under review or submitted
Li, Y., Huang, B., Tan, C., Zhang, X., Cherubini, F. and Rust, H. W.: Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models, EGUsphere [preprint], Copernicus GmbH, 2024
Published in peer-reviewed journal
20252023Richling, A., Grieger, J. and Rust, H. W.: Decomposition of skill scores for conditional verification: impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phases on the predictability of decadal temperature forecasts, Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, 2025, Vol. 18(2), pp. 361-375
2022Hohenegger, C., Ament, F., Beyrich, F., Löhnert, U., Rust, H., Bange, J., Böck, T., Böttcher, C., Boventer, J., Burgemeister, F., Clemens, M., Detring, C., Detring, I., Dewani, N., Duran, I. B., Fiedler, S., Göber, M., van Heerwaarden, C., Heusinkveld, B., Kirsch, B., Klocke, D., Knist, C., Lange, I., Lauermann, F., Lehmann, V., Lehmke, J., Leinweber, R., Lundgren, K., Masbou, M., Mauder, M., Mol, W., Nevermann, H., Nomokonova, T., Päschke, E., Platis, A., Reichardt, J., Rochette, L., Sakradzija, M., Schlemmer, L., Schmidli, J., Shokri, N., Sobottke, V., Speidel, J., Steinheuer, J., Turner, D. D., Vogelmann, H., Wedemeyer, C., Weide-Luiz, E., Wiesner, S., Wildmann, N., Wolz, K. and Wetz, T.: FESSTVaL: the Field Experiment on Submesoscale Spatio Temporal Variability in Lindenberg, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0330.1
Battaglioli, F., Groenemeijer, P., Púčik, T., Taszarek, M., Ulbrich, U. and Rust, H.: Modelled multidecadal trends of lightning and (very) large hail in Europe and North America (1950–2021), Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0195.1
Riebold, J., Richling, A., Ulbrich, U., Rust, H., Semmler, T. and Handorf, D.: On the linkage between future Arctic sea ice retreat, Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes and temperature extremes over Europe, Weather and Climate Dynamics, Copernicus GmbH, 2023, Vol. 4(3), pp. 663-682. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023
Fauer, F. S. and Rust, H. W.: Non-stationary large-scale statistics of precipitation extremes in central Europe, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02515-z
JFRM Volume 16 Outstanding Paper Award 2024 – Highly commended article:Sieg, T., Kienzler, S., Rözer, V., Vogel, K., Rust, H., Bronstert, A., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. and Thieken, A. H.: Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments, Journal of Flood Risk Management, Wiley, 2023. http://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12889
Göber, M., Christel, I., Hoffmann, D., Mooney, C. J., Rodriguez, L., Becker, N., Ebert, E. E., Fearnley, C., Fundel, V. J., Geiger, T., Golding, B., Jeurig, J., Kelman, I., Kox, T., Magro, F.-A., Perrels, A., Postigo, J. C., Potter, S. H., Robbins, J., Rust, H., Schoster, D., Tan, M. L., Taylor, A. and Williams, H.: Enhancing the Value of Weather and Climate Services in Society: Identified Gaps and Needs as Outcomes of the First WMO WWRP/SERA Weather and Society Conference, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 2023, Vol. 104(3), pp. E645-E651. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0199.1
Meredith, E. P., Ulbrich, U., and Rust, H. W. (2023). Cell tracking of convective rainfall: sensitivity of climate-change signal to tracking algorithm and cell definition (Cell-TAO v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 851–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023.
2021Caldas-Alvarez, A., Augenstein, M., Ayzel, G., Barfus, K., Cherian, R., Dillenardt, L., Fauer, F., Feldmann, H., Heistermann, M., Karwat, A., Kaspar, F., Kreibich, H., Lucio-Eceiza, E. E., Meredith, E. P., Mohr, S., Niermann, D., Pfahl, S., Ruff, F., Rust, H. W., Schoppa, L., Schwitalla, T., Steidl, S., Thieken, A. H., Tradowsky, J. S., Wulfmeyer, V., and Quaas, J.: Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022.
Becker, N., Rust, H.W. & Ulbrich, U. Weather impacts on various types of road crashes: a quantitative analysis using generalized additive models. Eur. Transp. Res. Rev. 14, 37 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00561-2
Becker, N., Rust, H.W. & Ulbrich, U. Modeling hourly weather-related road traffic variations for different vehicle types in Germany. Eur. Transp. Res. Rev. 14, 16 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00539-0
Otero, N., Jurado, O. E., Butler, T., and Rust, H. W.: The impact of atmospheric blocking on the compounding effect of ozone pollution and temperature: a copula-based approach, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1905-2022, 2022.
R. Polzin, A. Müller, H. W. Rust, P. Névir, P. Koltai: Direct Bayesian model reduction of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large scale dynamics, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-37-2022, 2022.
2020Otero, N., Rust, H. W. and Butler, T.: Temperature dependence of tropospheric ozone under NOx reductions over Germany, Atmospheric Environment, Elsevier BV, 2021, Vol. 253, pp. 118334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118334
C. Detring, L. Schielicke, A. Müller, P. Névir, H.W. Rust, Occurrence and transition probabilities of Omega and High-over-Low blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region, Weather Clim Dynam., 2, 927-952, 2021
J. Ulrich, F. Fauer, H. W. Rust, Modeling seasonal variations of extreme rainfall on different time scales in Germany, Hydrol. Earth. Sys. Sci., 25, 6133–6149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, 2021
F. Fauer, J. Ulrich, O. Jurado, H. W. Rust, Flexible and Consistent Quantile Estimation for Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves, Hydrol. Earth. Sys. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021
T. Kox, H.W. Rust, B. Wentzel, M. Göber, C. Böttecher, J. Lehmke, E. Freundl, M. Garschagen, Build and measure: Students report weather impacts and collect weather data using self-built weather stations, Austral. J. Disaster Trauma Stud., 25 (3), 79-86, 2021
A. Pasternack, J. Grieger, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: Recalibrating Decadal Climate Predictions – What is an adequate model for the drift?, Geosci. Model Dev. 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021
E. P. Meredith, . Ulbrich, H. W. Rust, H. Truhetz: Present and future diurnal hourly precipitation in 0.11° EURO-CORDEX models and at convection-permitting resolution. Envir. Res. Comm. 3(5), 055002. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abf15e, 2021
C .Kadow, S. Illing, E. E. Lucio-Eceiza, M. Bergemann, M. Ramadoss, P. S. Sommer, O. Kunst, T. Schartner, K. Pankatz , J. Grieger, M. Schuster, A. Richling, H. Thiemann, I. Kirchner, H. W. Rust, T. Ludwig, U. Cubasch, U. Ulbrich Introduction to Freva – A Free Evaluation System Framework for Earth System Modeling. J. Open Res. Software, 9(1) (2021)
2019Becker, N., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U.: Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020.
O. E. Jurado, J. Ulrich, M. Scheibel, H. W. Rust: Evaluating the Performance of a Max-Stable Process for Estimating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves. Water 2020, 12, 3314.
J. Ulrich, O. E. Jurado, M. Peter, M. Scheibel, H. W. Rust: Estimating IDF Curves Consistently over Durations with Spatial Covariates. Water 2020, 12, 3119.
E. Rousi, H.W. Rust, U. Ulbrich, C. Anagnostopoulou: Winter NAO flavors and their effects on European climate. Climate, 2020
2018E. Meredith, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: The diurnal nature of future extreme precipitation intensification. Geophy. Res. Lett., 2019.
Y. Liu, M. Donat, H. W. Rust, l. Alexander, M. England: Decadal predictability of temperature and precipitation means and extremes in a perfect-model experiment. Clim. Dyn, 2019.
H. Feldmann, J. G. Pinto, N. Laube, M. Uhlig, J. Moemken, A. Pasternack, B. Früh, H. Pohlmann, C. Kottmeier: Characterization of Skill and Added Value of the MiKlip Regional Decadal Prediction System for Temperature over Europe. Tellus A, 2019.
K. Fackeldey, P. Koltai, P. Névir, H. W. Rust, A. Schild, M. Weber: From Metastable to Coherent Sets – Time-Discretization Schemes. Chaos 29(1):012101, 2019
2017M. Fischer, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: A spatial and seasonal climatology of extreme precipitation return-levels: A
case study. Spatial Statistics, 2018S.Kremser, J. S. Tradowsky, H. W. Rust, G. E. Bodeker: Is it feasible to estimate radiosonde biases from interlaced measurements? Atmos. Measure. Tech., 11: 3021 - 3029, 2018
S. Liersch, J. Teckenburg, H. W. Rust, A. Dobler, M. Fischer, T. Kruschke, H. Koch, F. Hattermann: Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,2018
E. P. Meredith, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: A classification algorithm for selective dynamical downscaling of precipitation ex-
tremes, Hydrol. Earth. Syst. Sci., 22,4183 - 4200, 2018N. Otero, J. Silmann, K. A. Mar, H. W. Rust, et al.: A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe. Atmos. Chem. Phys.,2018.
A. Pasternack, H. W. Rust, J. Bhend, M. Liniger, W. A. Müller: Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration, Geosci. Model Develop., 2018
A. Paxian, M. Ziese, F. Kreienkamp, K. Pankatz, S. Brand, A. Pasternack, H. Pohlmann, K. Modali, B. Früh: User-oriented global predictions of the GPCC drought index for the next decade, Meteorol. Z.,2018.
2016M. Fischer, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes, Meteorol. Z. 2018, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2017/0845
C. Ritschel, H.W. Rust, U. Ulbrich: Precipitation extremes on multiple time scales -- Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model and Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
M. Walz, T. Kruschke, H. W. Rust, G. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich: Quantifying the extremity of windstorms for regions featuring infrequent events, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 2017, DOI: 10.1002/asl.758
Vor 2016S. Babian, H. W. Rust, K. Prömmel, J. Grieger, U. Cubasch: Representation of Antarctic Oscillation and related precipitation in the MPI Earth System Model, Meteorol. Z., 2016, 767-774, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2016/0661
F. Kaspar, H. W. Rust, U. Ulbrich and P. Becker: Verification and process oriented validation of the MiKlip decadal prediction system. Meteorol. Z., 629 - 630, 2016, DOI: 10.1127/metz/2016/0831
J. Marotzke, W. A. Müller, F. S. E. Vamborg, P. Becker, U. Cubasch, H. Feldmann, F. Kaspar, C. Kottmeier, C. Marini, I. Polkova, K. Prömmel, H. W. Rust, D. Stammer, U. Ulbrich, C. Kadow, A. Köhl, J. Kröger, T. Kruschke, J. G. Pinto, H. Pohlmann, M. Reyers, M. Schröder, F. Sienz, C. Timmreck, M. Ziese: MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1.
Otero Felipe, N., Sillmann, J., Schnell, J. L., Rust, H. W., Butler, T. M.: Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. - Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 2, 024005, 2016. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024005
2023Becker, N., Göber, M., Rust, H., and Ulbrich, U., 2023: Towards interactive real-time forecasts of weather-related fire brigade operations, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-410
2022Langer, I., Pasternack, A., Ulbrich, U., and Rust, H. W.: Messungen der 2m Temperatur und Feuchte zur Evaluierung von PALM-4U, DACH2022, Leipzig, Deutschland, 21–25 Mar 2022, DACH2022-70, https://doi.org/10.5194/dach2022-70, 2022.
Pasternack, A., Langer, I., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U.: Statistische Modellierung von Feuerwehreinsätzen für extreme Niederschlagsereignisse über Berlin., DACH2022, Leipzig, Deutschland, 21–25 Mar 2022, DACH2022-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/dach2022-67, 2022.
2021
Becker, N., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U., 2021: A model for weather-related traffic variations and accident probabilities on roads, EMS General Assembly 2021, https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2021/EMS2021-205.html?pdf
Trojand, A., Becker, N., Rust, H.W., 2021: Modelling winter storm impacts on insured claim ratios of residential buildings in German administrative districts, EMS General Assembly 2021, https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2021/EMS2021-367.html?pdf
Becker, N., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U., 2021: Translating weather forecasts to road accident probabilities, EGU General Assembly 2021, https://presentations.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU21-2092_presentation.pdf
Langer, I., Pasternack, A., Ulbrich,U., and Henning w. Rust,EGU General Assembly 2021 Comparison of urban climate measurements in Berlin and LES model output for a special observation period, EGU21-2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2194
Pasternack, A., Langer, I., Rust, H.W., and Uwe Ulbrich, EGU General Assembly 2021, Statistical modeling of fire brigade operations with respect to extreme precipitation events over Berlin.EGU21-14913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14913.
Langer, I., Pasternack, A.,Rust, H.W., and Uwe Ulbrich, mettlos-Tagung, Hamburg 2021. Messungen der 2m Temperatur zur Evaluierung von PALM-4U.
2020Pasternack,A., Langer,I., Rust, H.W, and Uwe Ulbrich, EGU 2020, Utilization of fire brigade data in the impact analysis of extreme precipitation events over Berlin,EGU2020-17934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17934.
2019Ulrich, J.; C. Detring; C. Ritschel und H. Rust: R-Paket zur Schätzung physikalisch konsistenter IDF-Kurven, DACH 2019, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Trojand, A.; N. Becker und H.Rust: Windstauvorhersage in der Deutschen Bucht - ProbabilistischeVorhersage und Verifikation, DACH 2019, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Detring, C.; A. Müller; P. Névir und H. Rust: Ein Markov-Modell für High-over-Low und Omega-Blockierungen, DACH 2019, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Becker, N., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U., 2019: Vorhersage wetterbedingter Verkehrsunfälle, DACH 2019,
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/DACH2019/DACH2019-109.pdfPasternack, A.Henning W. Rust, Jonas Bhend, Jens Grieger, Mark A. Liniger, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich, EGU 2019. Posterbeitrag,Simultaneous recalibration of decadal predictions for multiple lead-times with an extension of DeFoReSt
Richling, A. Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich, EGU 2019 Posterbeitrag. Stratified Verification of Decadal Predictions - Influence of ENSO and AMV phases on Forecast Skill
2017
Rust, Henning : Drift in Decadal Predictions - A particular challenge for Verification : CLIM-1 KEY NOTE. - 51. - 40, 7th International Verification Methods Workshop Annalen der Meteorologie 2017 in Offenbach
Kadow, Ch, Illing, S., Schartner, Th, Kirchner, I, Rust, H, Ulbrich, U.: Freva - Freie Univ Evaluation System Framework for Scientific Infrastructures in Earth System Modeling : CLIM-2 . -41, 7th International Verification Methods Workshop Annalen der Meteorologie 2017 in Offenbach
Pasternack, Alexander; Rust, Henning; Grieger, Jens; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark A.; Ulbrich, Uwe : Calibration of decadal ensemble predictions : P CLIM-2. -70, 7th International Verification Methods Workshop Annalen der Meteorologie 2017 in Offenbach
Pasternack, Alexander; Rust, Henning; Grieger, Jens; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark; Müller, Wolfgang; Ulbrich, Uwe : Calibration of decadal ensemble predictions . Geophysical Research Abstracts. - 19, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017 in Wien
Richling, Andy; Rust, Henning; Bissolli, Peter; Ulbrich, Uwe : Identification of Atmospheric Blocking Events and its Influence on Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe . Geophysical Research Abstracts. Volume 19, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017 in Wien
BLRPM: Stochastic Rainfall Generator Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse ModelAutoren: Christoph Ritschel, Carola Detring, Sarah Joedicke
Beschreibung: Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a widely used analysis-tool in hydrology to assess extreme values of precipitation [e.g. Mailhot et al., 2007, <doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.09.019>]. The package 'IDF' provides a function to read precipitation data from German weather service (DWD) 'webwerdis' <http://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/webwerdis/webwerdis.html> files and Berlin station data from 'Stadtmessnetz' <http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/service/stadtmessnetz/index.html> files, and additionally IDF parameters can be estimated also from a given data.frame containing a precipitation time series. The data is aggregated to given levels yearly intensity maxima are calculated either for the whole year or given months. From these intensity maxima IDF parameters are estimated on the basis of a duration-dependent generalised extreme value distribution [Koutsoyannis et al., 1998, <doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00097-3>]. IDF curves based on these estimated parameters can be plotted.
Download: IDF_1.1.tar.gz
Download über die CRAN-Webseite: https://cran.r-project.org/package=IDF
Autor: Christoph Ritschel
Beschreibung: Due to a limited availability of observed high-resolution precipitation records with adequate length, simulations with stochastic precipitation models are used to generate series for subsequent studies [e.g. Khaliq and Cunmae, 1996, <doi:10.1016/0022-1694(95)02894-3>, Vandenberghe et al., 2011, <doi:10.1029/2009WR008388>]. This package contains an R implementation of the original Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model (BLRPM), developed by Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. (1987) <doi:10.1098/rspa.1987.0039>. It contains a function for simulating a precipitation time series based on storms and cells generated by the model with given or estimated model parameters. Additionally BLRPM parameters can be estimated from a given or simulated precipitation time series. The model simulations can be plotted in a three-layer plot including an overview of generated storms and cells by the model (which can also be plotted individually), a continuous step-function and a discrete precipitation time series at a chosen aggregation level.
Download: BLRPM_1.0.tar.gz
Download über die CRAN- Webseite: https://cran.r-project.org/package=BLRPM