On May 1, 2022, the project “Self-Referential Multi-Scale Modelling and Simulation of Severe Infectious Diseases: Public response and Feedback effects” started. The SEMSAI project is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.  

Project background and project aims

The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated that model-based forecasts, which update only historical data, overestimate infection numbers and weaken public acceptance of forecasts as a basis for policy decisions. Traditional models do not account for behavioural changes due to perceived risks and ignore the effects of crisis communication and subjective perceptions. The goal of SEMSAI is to explore how model-based forecasts can be adjusted to better reflect the future and how communication of forecasts influences behaviour. The DRU explores ways to increase the validity of simulation models for severe infectious diseases from a socio-psychological perspective by analysing the behaviour of the population, identifying relevant influencing factors, assisting with their integration into models, and examining the impact of those models on the population.

You can find more information on the project page.